Ukraine war latest: US arms advantage over Russia and China 'threatens global stability' (2024)

We're bringing our live coverage of the Ukraine war to an end for this evening.

We'll return with any breaking updates overnight and will resume our rolling coverage soon, but in the meantime, here's a recap of the key events from today:

• Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba, one of the most notable faces for Kyiv during the war, lost his role in a major government reshuffle which saw nine new ministers appointed;
  
• Vladimir Putin claimedKamala Harris was his preferred choice to win the US election in November, saying her "infectious" laugh was a reason to pick her over Donald Trump;
• But our Moscow correspondent Ivor Bennett said his comments are "almost certainly more mischief-making than a statement of fact":

• One person was killed and three others injured in a Russian shelling attack in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk, prosecutors said;
• NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said Ukraine had achieved "a lot" in its shock invasion of the Kursk border region in Russia a month ago - after Mr Putin said earlier today that the operation had failed;
• Meanwhile, the Kremlin claimed, seemingly without evidence, that instructors from different countries had been taking part in military actions and training Ukrainian forces.

It would be "absurd" for the UN-backed International Monetary Fund (IMF) to resume cooperation with Russia, Kyiv has said, following reports the IMF is planning to send its first mission to the country since it invaded Ukraine.

The IMF's Russian representative Aleksei Mozhin told Reuters this week that the mission - the first since 2019 - would go ahead on 16 September.

It will be the first major international financial body to send its official mission to Russia since Moscow sent its troops onto Ukrainian soil.

Ukraine says it is "concerned" at the reports and said it would be "absurd for the main financial institution of the United Nations to legitimise the Russian regime that commits horrific atrocities".

The IMF has been criticised by several Western member states during the war for providing what they say are overly optimistic outlooks about the Russian economy.

Russia's daily casualty rate has increased, with Ukraine's invasion of its Kursk border region partially the cause, the UK defence ministry has said.

In its latest intelligence update, the MoD cited Ukrainian military figures suggesting the average number of Russians killed and wounded increased to 1,187 a day in August.

It added that Russia has "likely suffered over 610,000 casualties" during the war.

"The August 2024 increase in casualty rate is almost certainly due to Ukraine's Kursk operation and continued pressure on the Pokrovsk axis," the MoD said.

It added that Russian pressure on the frontline would continue, but "their capability constraints will likely continue to reduce their ability to exploit any tactical successes into wider operational gains".

The MoD also said Russia's casualty rate would likely "continue to average above 1,000 a day throughout September".

It's important to note that Russia and Ukraine separately report battlefield casualty figures which often contradict each other.

Poland has rowed back on its claim that a drone likely entered its airspace during a Russian attack on Ukraine last month.

A Polish army spokesperson said an object that entered the country's airspace early on the morning of 26 August was "most likely a drone" but weather conditions meant it couldn't be identified with complete certainty.

After 10 days of analysis and an extensive search failed to produce any trace of a Russian drone, General Maciej Klisz, head of the Polish army's operational command, said he believed the airspace had not been violated

"As a result of the analytical activities undertaken, I currently state that with a very high probability there was no violation of the airspace of the Republic of Poland on 26 August," he told reporters.

Poland has reported several other airspace violations during Russia's war with Ukraine, and General Klisz warned they could happen again.

The US has charged a Russian TV pundit and his wife over two separate schemes to violate sanctions imposed after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

The Department of Justice alleges that Dimitri Simes, 76, and Anastasia Simes, 55, took part in a plot to violate sanctions "for the benefit of sanctioned Russian broadcaster Channel One Russia", and to launder funds obtained through the scheme.

The couple have a home in the US state of Virginia but "remain at large and are believed to be in Russia", the department said.

Both are charged with one count of conspiracy to violate the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, one count of violating the act, and a count of conspiracy to commit international money laundering.

They face up to 20 years in prison if convicted.

Ukraine's parliament has voted to appoint nine new ministers in the biggest government reshuffle since Russia's invasion in 2022.

We reported earlier that Andrii Sybiha was to take over the role of foreign minister from Dmytro Kuleba after he resigned, reportedly following clashes with Volodymyr Zelenskyy's head of office, Andriy Yermak (see 12.40pm).

Mr Kuleba, who was appointed foreign minister in March 2020, had become one of Kyiv's most notable public faces during the conflict.

The shakeup began earlier this week when several other ministers stepped down, while at least five cabinet seats were already vacant after earlier sackings.

The Ukrainian president proposed a slew of replacements which politicians signed off on today.

He said changes to Ukraine's government were necessary to strengthen it and achieve the results his country needed.

The number of people killed in a Russian ballistic missile strike in central Ukraine has risen again as the rescue operation is completed.

Ukraine's state emergency service said 55 people are now known to have died after the missiles struck a military institute and nearby hospital on Wednesday.

Some 328 people were wounded, it said on Telegram.

The attack was one of the deadliest carried out by Russian since the start of the war.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowed that "Russian scum" would be held accountable for the strike and ordered an investigation.

Ukraine has achieved "a lot" with its incursion into Kursk in Russia, according to NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg.

Unsurprisingly, his claim runs counter to that of Vladimir Putin, who this morning said the invasion had failed (see earlier post).

Speaking at a forum in eastern Russia, Mr Putin said it was designed to stall Moscow's advance in the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region, but had only succeeded in weakening Kyiv's defences.

Mr Stoltenberg has told reporters on a visit in Oslo that Ukraine's invasion has been an achievement.

But he did add that it's hard to say how the situation will develop next.

"Only the Ukrainians can make the difficult choices that areneeded, such as where to deploy their forces and what type ofwarfare is appropriate in this situation," Mr Stoltenberg said.

It comes in a critical, potentially pivotal, phase of the war.

Ukraine is waiting to see whether its surprise gamble to invade Russia's Kursk border region was worth it.

Meanwhile, outgunned Ukrainian soldiers are gradually being pushed backwards by Russia's months-long push deeper into eastern Ukraine.

The United States and its allies have enough conventional weapons capability to threaten or destroy all Russian and Chinese nuclear launch sites, new analysis suggests.

Two experts from SOAS University in London say Russian and Chinese nuclear launchers are actually more vulnerable than often considered, given "US and allies' technological and numerical advantages in conventional missiles and delivery systems".

China and Russia have 70 and 150 launchers in eastern central Asia, Professor Dan Plesch and Manuel Galileo write in a new paper.

"Against these,there are 4,400 Tomahawks and 3,500 JASSM missiles.

"Arithmetically, thenumbers favour the US and allies... not least given Russia and China's overall lesser detectioncapabilities and incrementally improving US missile defences."

Only Russian mobile and Chinese strategic systems buried deep underground "may be considered at all survivable in the face ofconventional missile attacks", they write.

This US advantage, and the fact it is generally underestimated, threatens stability and could fuel a fresh arms race, the authors warned.

"US global conventional firepower is underestimated, which threatens both the realities and the perceptions of strategic stability."

The Netherlands will buy new tanks, fighter jets, frigates and air defence systems as it ups its defence spending by more than 10% next year.

The Dutch government said it wanted to strengthen its forces in the face of new securitythreats, citing Russia.

"New threats demand action. Russia's ruthless aggression inUkraine shows an attack on the NATO alliance is no longerunthinkable," defence minister Ruben Brekelmans said.

The uplift of €2.4bn (£2m), takes the annual budget to around €24bn, and puts Dutch defence spending on course to meet NATO's minimum 2% of GDP defence spending guideline.

Other threats to national security come from China, Iran, terrorism and cyberattacks, he said.

Separately, NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg earlier told a conference he does not see anyimmediate military threat from Russia against NATO countries, but said therewas a constant danger of terrorism, cyber attacks and sabotage.